June 2026 - Great Expectations
#UKSTOCKS #CHRT #TAM #PRV #CER #AOM
Introduction
This is the “Great Expectations” screen which is run 4 times a year, in March, June, September and December, thus providing a quarterly view.
If you have not yet seen the full list of screens or the 2026 schedule, here is a link to that original article, which contains the target dates for each screen.
The Great Expectations Screen
Overview
This screen is available in the Sharescope Filter Library, it’s titled “Briefed Up - Q06 - Great Expectations”.
For those of you needing any orientation with filters, this Sharescope article is very useful, as it also includes details on how to access the library and these filters.
Do remember, for additional help and support, all Sharescope subscribers can book free training sessions here.
Objective
Identify stocks with a high PER, this year, next year, and the year after next greater than 15, indicating that forecast growth expectations are quite high, and where the PEG, this year and next is greater than 1.5, indicating that forecast growth is considerably less than the valuation demands - Beats are expected (needed) to justify the valuation or the company is maybe bid material. Potential high growth plays, may be bid for, or are overbought!
Parameters
Stock Universe Settings
Market Cap: Default - £10m to No limit - To exclude small illiquid stocks
Sectors: Default - Exclude “Tobacco”, “Industrial Metals and Mining”, “Precious Metals and Mining”, and “Oil, Gas and Coal” - To exclude sectors I don’t typically invest in
ISIN Country of Register: Default - Exclude “JP” and “FR” - To exclude these specific foreign registered stocks
Note: My default stock list is always “LSE shares (excluding Investment Trusts (ITs))”.
Base Settings
This years PE Ratio (PER) - Is greater than 15 - Growth expectations are quite high
Next years PE Ratio (PER) - Is greater than 15 - Growth expectations are quite high
The PE Ratio (PER) for the year after next - Is greater than 15 - Growth expectations are quite high
The PEG (for this year, based on the forecast growth from this year to next year) - Is greater than 1.5 - Growth expectations are considerably greater than the valuation multiple
The PEG (for next year, based on the forecast growth from next year to the year after next) - Is greater than 1.5 - Growth expectations are considerably greater than the valuation multiple
Optional Settings
Operating Margin % - Is greater than 20 - A very basic quality check
Settings Used
Stock Universe Settings
No change to defaults
Base Settings
No change to defaults
Optional Settings
No change to defaults
Actual Settings
Results
The screen returned 31 stocks. And, this quarter I have decided to take the bottom 5, the ones with the lowest market cap, as I have never written here before about any of them.
I will focus on CHRT, TAM, PRV, CER, and AOM.
“Our View”
As usual, Paul has kindly allowed me to provide the current view from the Small/Mid Caps with Paul Scott Substack database for the 5 stocks I am covering this month, so here they are…
Members of the Small/Mid Caps with Paul Scott Substack can click here to access details and commentary for the vast majority of all of the stocks from the above results. The full history for most UK stocks is available via the the new Small/Mid Caps Value Report Search App, which covers over 18 months of updates in some cases.
For example, here are the last five (of eigth) Small/Mid Caps Value Report Search App entries for CHRT…
Note: As well as the five daily analysis table entries, the main article coverage last month, which can be accessed by clicking the link within the app.
Members of the Small/Mid Caps with Paul Scott Substack get:
Access to the complete history, and current view, of over 800 UK stocks via the Small/Mid Caps Value Report Search App
Main section articles on over 250 of those UK stocks
Morning RNS announcement analysis, out before the market open
Daily analysis of up to 30 stocks a day, even more on very busy news days
Exclusive interviews
Up to 5 podcasts a week. and a weekly update video
Access to an active and growing community of UK investors, where participation is encouraged
A team (which includes me) with almost 100 years of joint investing experience, focused on delivering the best coverage of the UK stock market
In Focus
Cohort (CHRT) - Independent defense and security technology group: Communications and electronic warfare systems, sonar, intelligence, sensors. A good quality company but looks priced about right to me based on current forecasts. Has a heavy reliance on the UK MOD, c.50% of revenue, generally relies on long-term, multi-year defense contracts, <20% of revenue is recurring, but typically has good visibility.
Tatton Asset Management (TAM) - Owner-managed UK investment management and support services provider for IFAs. I quite like this business, where the founder and CEO Paul Hogarth is the largest shareholder with 15%. It’s a capital light business on great margins that benefits from operational gearing. The ambition here is to increase AUM/I by 24% from £24.2bn in FY 3/26 to £30bn in FY 3/29. On a forward PER of almost 19x and a 3.9% yield (on 1.4x cover) though, after earnings growth of 20%+ in the last two years, this now looks set to almost halve. Wouldn’t bet against it but for now, without any upgrades in forecasts, looks priced about right.
Porvair (PRV) - High-tech filters and environmental technology: Aerospace and industrial (planes, nuclear plants), and medical/labs. Looks like a decent quality company to me, but with forecast earnings growth of less than 6% per annum over the next few years, seems fully priced on a forward PER of 19.4x and a less than 1% yield.
Cerillion (CER) - Owner-managed back-office billing and CRM software solutions and equipment for global telecommunications companies. No doubt, a quality business, a sticky customer base, 40%+ operating margins, c.50% recurring revenue, and the founder (and current CEO) Louis Hall owns 20%. However, based on current forecasts, a forward PER of 18.8x on a less than 2% yield, looks fully priced to me.
ActiveOps (AOM) - Owner-managed SaaS provider: Improves operations and productivity for big companies, like banks and insurance firms. The forward PER is almost 100x here (for FY 3/26, results are due this Thursday), falling to 72x in FY 3/27 based on forecast growth of 38% in earnings next year. As a note, earnings are also forecast to grow by a similar amount in FY 3/28, which sees that PER drop to 51x. There is a lot of optimism built into the current share price even though earnings are forecast to grow at a quite a clip - I suspect in-line updates will not be enough here for some time to come.
Summary
The Small/Mid Caps with Paul Scott Substack
If you are not already a subscriber to the Small/Mid Caps with Paul Scott Substack and are interested in a 1 week FREE trial, click here to access all of the features mentioned above.
Sharescope
If you are not already a subscriber to the excellent Sharescope software we use every day over at the Small/Mid Caps with Paul Scott Substack, click here for the Small/Mid Caps with Paul Scott Substack deal and get:
A discount to the annual subscription fee
Access to this screen and all my other screens - Copy, amend and run them with your own parameters, as and when you want, across any markets you want to
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Thank You
As always, if you have any suggestions for improvement, or any feedback at all, do please leave a comment.
Thanks for reading, and see you in the next one!
IMPORTANT NOTE: It is vital that you check all figures in this article for yourself, as they may be inaccurate or may have changed since publication.
MORE IMPORTANTLY: No investment advice intended, for information only, I may hold all, some, none, of the stocks mentioned in this article - Do Your Own Research!
Jon